TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/022690/0226007.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 6KB | 120 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 25

NICARAGUA

The Odd Couple Plays Managua


In the first free (more or less) elections in years, Ortega and
Chamorro offer themselves to the people, but not much else

By JOHN MOODY/MANAGUA


    Daniel Ortega Saavedra hit the road at 5 a.m., bound for
the northwestern city of Ocotal, where several thousand
supporters awaited him. The same day, Violeta Barrios de
Chamorro met in her airy Managua home with advisers of her
National Opposition Union (U.N.O.), then received a courtesy
call from Joao Baena Soares, secretary-general of the
Organization of American States. Next door, Chamorro's aides
frantically tried to add more appearances to her schedule,
despite doctors' orders not to tax her limited stamina.

    With the election set for Sunday, the two candidates for
the presidency of Nicaragua continue to campaign against type.
Ortega, 44, the sometimes arrogant incumbent who has ruled since
1979, is hopscotching around the country with the fervor of a
write-in contender. Gone are his military fatigues in favor of
cowboy togs, complete with pointed boots. Chamorro, 60, a
political neophyte who depicts herself as the best chance to
save Nicaragua, placidly directs her campaign from her living
room.

    Though Sandinista leaders exude confidence, opinion polls
project wildly conflicting results. One survey puts Ortega 20
points ahead of Chamorro; another gives Chamorro almost exactly
the same lead. The discrepancy confirms a suspicion that
Nicaraguans, unused to honest elections and chary of speaking
their minds to strangers, say whatever they think a pollster
wants to hear. Gallup would go mad.

    Eager to win official recognition from the Bush
Administration, the Sandinista National Liberation Front
(F.S.L.N.) has turned up the  propaganda noise and ladled out
servings from a meager pork barrel. Billboards featuring Ortega
nuzzling his daughter Camila, 2, dominate Managua, while the
strains of the Sandinista campaign song (and old Beatles hit)
All You Need Is Love blare from TVs and radios. The F.S.L.N. has
distributed nearly a million toys in a country where playthings
are a rarity, and has also handed out 1,000 parcels of land to
farmers. Two weeks ago, Ortega pardoned the last of Nicaragua's
political prisoners -- more than 1,000 former contras --
captured since the Sandinistas seized power in 1979; a week
earlier he had promised to loosen exit-visa requirements.

    But the Sandinistas have not changed their Marxist ways
altogether. U.N.O. poll watchers assigned to monitor the ballot
counting have complained of harassment by members of the
Interior Ministry urging them to quit the party. Those who
comply are rewarded with perks like free coupons for gasoline.
Diehards who refuse such blandishments are threatened with loss
of jobs or property.

    After weeks of languishing in low gear, Chamorro's campaign
revved up over the past fortnight. She is relying on voters'
pent-up fury with ten years of Sandinista mismanagement.
Inflation last year hovered around 1,700%, unemployment around
25%. Real wages have dropped more than 90% since 1981. "All she
has to do is point to the Sandinista record," says Alfredo
Cesar, Chamorro's chief adviser. "She doesn't have to convince
anyone she's better than Daniel Ortega."

    That is just as well. Dona Violeta is a charming woman
whose smile ignites crowds. But she owes her candidacy to the
memory of her late husband Pedro Joaquin Chamorro Cardenal, the
revered publisher of the Managua daily La Prensa who was
assassinated in January 1978. Her casual pace suggests
disorganization rather than confidence. Until last month,
Chamorro restricted her forays outside Managua to weekends,
supposedly for lack of funds. Her unfamiliarity with the details
of issues, like Nicaragua's hyperinflation, has spawned
unflattering comparisons with Ronald Reagan. Enthroned in a
wheelchair because of knee surgery, Chamorro becomes testy when
asked if she feels Ortega is outhustling her.

    Even if Chamorro wins, many Nicaraguans doubt that the
Sandinistas would willingly relinquish power to her, especially
control of the 70,000-member armed forces, which is called the
Sandinista People's Army and is the main guarantor of the
F.S.L.N.'s power. Chamorro favors drastically reducing the
army's size. If Ortega should win in a fair election, the U.S.
would be under pressure to normalize relations with Managua or
at the very least to lift the economic boycott imposed in 1985.
For now, the Bush Administration is taking a tough stance,
promising to improve relations with the Sandinistas if they are
victorious, but only if they stop aiding rebel groups in
neighboring countries and maintain the democratic freedoms that
have been expanded during the campaign.

    A Chamorro triumph would lead not only to the ending of the
boycott but also, most likely, to an infusion of U.S. aid
designed to help resuscitate the country's economy. But after
spending more than $300 million in aid to the contras to
dislodge the Sandinistas, Washington might find itself
allocating large sums to a country run by a President who so far
has demonstrated neither the vision nor the administrative
skills to do her job well. Ortega's election, on the other hand,
would signal that the nation's 1.75 million voters prefer the
devil they know. In either case, Nicaraguans in search of a
brighter future may find little reason to celebrate after the
election.